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By Chris Larimer, Associate Professor, University of Northern Iowa To say the results on Monday night will hinge on turnout is to state the obvious.  But a closer look at the numbers reveals just how important overall turnout will be to the results, particularly the campaigns of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. Using data maintained by George Washington University and the Iowa Secretary of State’s website, and as reported by Dennis Goldford of Drake University, recent turnout at the caucuses is not particularly impressive. For the Democrats, the average turnout the last three competitive caucuses (2000, 2004, and 2008) was 141,654, or an average of 24.6 percent of active registered Democrats in the state.  But there is considerable variation here.  In 2000, 61,000 Democrats (or 11 percent) caucused in the race between Al Gore and Bill Bradley, while in 2008 nearly 240,000 (or 40 percent) Democrats turned out to caucus. For the Republicans, for the last three competitive caucuses (2000, 2008, and 2012), there was less variation.  Turnout averaged approximately 110,000 Republicans, for an average turnout rate of 18.5 percent, ranging from 15 percent in 2000 to 20 percent in 2012. This raises two questions: Can Democrats realistically expect to […]

By Joe Weeg The retired Navy captain sat across the table at Smokey Row Coffee. Totally composed. Taking my measure is my guess. I start to feel a little warm under her scrutiny. Let’s see — unwavering eye contact, upright posture, an open smile. Check, check, and check. Naval Captain Megan Klee, retired, is on a campaign. “I decided I wanted to actually see all the presidential candidates in person. It is different to see them in person where you get more than a sound bite.”     Klee is making the rounds from her home base in Des Moines. She and her husband, Allan Kniep, make forays out to Waukee, or Urbandale, or Oskaloosa to hear and talk to the candidates. But Klee is not a passive observer of these events. “To see the candidates in person isn’t as much as I’d hoped it would be because the candidates are speaking to their own true believers. And even when it’s an open forum, they still think they are speaking only to their own true believers. And kind of shocked when they aren’t.  So . . . I ask questions.” I would wager she’s used to getting answers. Klee was […]